Thoughts

Long-form thinking

On tech, AI, business, and what actually works.

July 15, 2026

The $300 Line Item: Why Google Really Kicked Its Biggest Advertisers Off Credit Cards

In June 2024 Google forced its biggest advertisers off credit cards with a no-exceptions ultimatum, calling it a better billing experience. The payments math tells the real story: roughly $300 per $10,000 in card fees versus a dime by bank transfer — plus tighter control, verified identities, and a bet that advertisers had nowhere else to go.

GoogleEconomicsStrategyInvestigation

July 14, 2026

The Real AI Monopoly Is a Uranium Plant in Appalachian Ohio

The AI buildout's tightest chokepoint isn't Nvidia — it's HALEU, the reactor fuel that Big Tech's new nuclear fleet needs, and Centrus Energy's Piketon, Ohio plant is the only facility in America licensed to make it. Inside the $900 million bet, the Russian irony, the 40x supply gap, and the five-year window before the monopoly ends.

AI InfrastructureEnergyInvestingNational Security

July 13, 2026

You Can't Print Electrons: The Companies Actually Powering the AI Revolution

AI's binding constraint is no longer chips — it's electricity. A map of the companies selling the electrons: the dominant incumbents with decades of contracted hyperscaler revenue, and the wild cards that could pay off like lottery tickets over the next ten years.

AI InfrastructureEnergyInvestingStrategy

July 6, 2026

Free Isn't Cheap Enough: How Good Is NVIDIA, Really?

Jensen Huang tells customers that even if rivals gave their chips away, NVIDIA would still be the cheaper choice. Independent benchmarks, MLPerf audits, and the purchasing behavior of the smartest compute buyers say he's mostly right — with one instructive exception.

NVIDIAAI InfrastructureSemiconductorsTCO

July 5, 2026

Sol, Terra, Luna: OpenAI Just Tiered the Frontier Like a SaaS Plan

OpenAI's GPT-5.6 didn't ship one model — it shipped three (Sol, Terra, Luna) priced in a clean 2x ladder. The real story isn't the 91.9% benchmark crown; it's that 'which model' is now a budget decision. A clear-eyed read of the tiers, the honest benchmark picture (Terra actually scores below GPT-5.5), and which tier a business should actually buy.

AIStrategyOpenAIOperations

July 1, 2026

Born in England, Made in Bryne: How Norway Got Its Greatest Footballer

Born in Leeds and eligible for England, Erling Haaland chose Norway. The real reason runs through his father's battered Premier League career, the infamous Roy Keane tackle, and a quiet homecoming to a small Norwegian farming town.

SportsFootballInvestigation

June 28, 2026

The Agent ROI Reckoning: Why Most AI Rollouts Still Don't Pay Back

AI agents save real hours, yet only 41% of rollouts hit positive ROI within a year and 19% never pay back. The 2026 data on why most agent deployments stall — and the four moves that separate the winners. The dividing line isn't the model; it's measurement.

AIROIStrategyAutomation

June 27, 2026

The Day Google Went Fully Agentic

How Google turned itself from a search company into an agentic-AI company across two keynotes — I/O 2025 and I/O 2026 — and what its agents, open protocols, and quadrillion-token scale mean for business decision-makers planning their own AI bets.

AIStrategyEnterpriseAutomationGoogle

June 26, 2026

Approval Required: The Week the U.S. Started Deciding Who Gets the Best AI

In late June 2026 the most capable AI models stopped being something you could simply buy. OpenAI began releasing GPT-5.6 only to a government-vetted list of partners, days after Washington suspended foreign access to Anthropic's top models. It isn't a kill switch — it's a permission layer, and it changes who controls the frontier.

AIPolicyNational SecurityStrategy