Thoughts

Long-form thinking

On tech, AI, business, and what actually works.

June 19, 2026

The Margin Machine: What the 2030 Small Business Will Look Like — and How to Build It First

Small businesses now adopt AI faster than big firms — yet roughly 95% of AI projects move no profit at all. Here's what the AI-native small business actually looks like by 2030, and the six-step roadmap that turns cheap intelligence into software-grade margins.

AISmall BusinessStrategyAutomation

June 19, 2026

The Fog and the Record: America's Two Wars With Iran

America fought two wars with Iran eleven months apart — the June 2025 Twelve-Day War and the February 2026 campaign that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei. In both, the victory announced on day one and the reality that emerged weeks later were different conflicts. A reconstruction of what was claimed, and what actually held up.

PoliticsPolicyStrategy

June 16, 2026

The Check That Couldn't Be Written: In Defense of the Billionaire

A trillion-dollar pay package revived the internet's oldest fantasy — that one rich man could end world hunger with a single signature. It's wrong about wealth, wrong about hunger, and wrong about history: a defense of the much-maligned billionaire.

PoliticsEconomicsPolicyStrategy

May 28, 2026

The $3.70 Question: What You Should Actually Get Back for Every Dollar You Spend on AI

The honest answer to what you get per dollar of AI spend is two numbers, not one: $3.70 for the leaders, 5.9% for the average. Which one becomes yours has almost nothing to do with the model and everything to do with preparation.

AIROIEnterpriseStrategy